Labor Day marks the unofficial end of Summer. Vacations are over. Kids are back at school. Summer projects are wrapped up (we hope). The week after Labor Day is often when we look up and realize all the stuff we wanted to get done this calendar year…now needs to get done in the next 4 months. Unless it’s stuff you want to get done this FISCAL year (in which case you’re down to about 30 sunrises). It’s September again. But this September is a bit different – or maybe a lot different depending on your situation. I’ll start with my top 3 things that make this FY different from previous FYs: still under CR, GovCon rule books are in flux, and recession underway. We are not feeling the effects of these three yet, but we will in FY26. It’s best to prep for them now.
- The full year CR is aptly titled “Full Year Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2025” is, unfortunately, not unique. Congress has punted for the entire year with a full-year CR over a dozen times in the past – through most of the 1980s and as recently as 2007 and 2013. In general, the alternative is a government shutdown. Through that lens, the full year CR is the better of some bad options. Bottom line: a full year CR adds to the uncertainty (see July Skyway Wire) but is a blip in the long-term. We are not feeling the lag effect of the funding shortfalls now, but we will in FY 26.
- GovCon is in transition. The FAR Overhaul continues. The CMMC requirements are (finally) kicking in. The government push for buying through commercial procedures is in overdrive. There are lots of moving parts. We are not feeling the impact of these changes yet, but we will in FY 26. I’ll focus for now on the FAR Overhaul. The “overhauls” come in different flavors. Some overhauled parts were streamlined by removing redundancy. Some overhauls reshuffled text to make it clear(er). Some moved info outside the FAR with links for convenience. Then there are some that added new words, removed key concepts, added new ideas, and/or removed context that now leads contracting officers to make new interpretations – which may take a bit to work through way through the cycles of the Acquisition and Execution Time Zones®. The overhauled parts are popping off like popcorn – at a rate of better than one every two weeks. As for Skyway, we are taking our time to methodically assess each part overhaul for you (see FAR Overhaul playlist). Accuracy and usefulness override speed.
- Indicators of a recession abound. In full disclosure, I’m not an economist, but I do track economic and business metrics and trends diligently. For starters, I have a long time key economic indicator I use to gauge my local economy: I count the number of cranes I see in the sky in my city. It’s a ‘a lot’, the economy is good. If it’s few, or gulp, none. Things are dicey. It’s not very scientific, but it has worked for me. For those who are more official data driven: consumer spending is down. Consumer debt is up. Consumer confidence is down. (note: this matters because 2/3 of our economy is consumer activity). In addition, raw material costs are up. New housing starts are down. GDP growth is down year or year. These are all indicators of a recession. When combined, they tell me we are in heading into (or in) an economic recession.
Why does that matter to GovCon?
Because historically recessions have led to more companies moving into public sector work, and the federal government encouraging that move to boost the economy. This has been the playbook since the Great Depression, then after 9-11, then after the Great Recession. This pattern holds, and it works. However, this time the government is going through transition as well (see #1 and #2 above – and other factors). Therefore, the transition into the government market may be harder for companies than in the past. It may be too hard for some as the landscape continues to shift. This means the playbook won’t work this time. Bottom line: if you’re already in GovCon, you are better positioned to navigate the recession (the length of which is still TBD). Lean into this (whether government or contractor). Shore up your GovCon chops and stay on top of the shifts. Start with the FAR Overhauls – then be ready for a different round of appropriation in 2026. Our role here at Skyway is to help you stay one step ahead.
Reminder: we are here to help you directly with training, consulting, and mentoring. To contact us, email connect@skywayacq.com. If you already know who on the Skyway team can help you, you can reach out to them directly.
What’s new from Skyway this month?
Webinars: Based on feedback from our clients, I’m making live Skyway Webinars again!
The September webinar is Notable notes of FY 25 – what’s next? To highlight the year that was, and what to do next.
The October webinar is Let’s Launch into FY26 to start us off right for the next FY.
Watch your emails for more info on these live sessions or find them on Skyway Central© at skywayacq.com/webinars.
New Contracting Officer Podcast episodes this month:
New Episodes:
521: What is the Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification?
522: The “Overhaul” of FAR Part 6 (Part 2 of 4)
523: The “Overhaul” of FAR Part 18 (with Cesar Lopez)
524: What is a Requirements Contract with Shelley Hall
NOTE: You can listen to all Contracting Officer Podcast episodes on our website or directly on the native podcast app that’s already on your smartphone (See how here).
For curated lists of episode by topic, check out the Contracting Officer Podcast 2.0 Playlists:
Thank you for being a Skyway client. Without clients, we aren’t able to help others to #DoGovConWell – Kevin
